``Agro-meteorological indices and climate model uncertainty over the UK''

Harding, A. E.; Rivington, M.; Mineter, M. J. and Tett, S. F. B.. 2014. ``Agro-meteorological indices and climate model uncertainty over the UK''. Climatic Change, 128(1), pp. 113-126. [Article]

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Abstract or Description

Five stakeholder-relevant indices of agro-meteorological change were analysed for the UK, over past (1961--1990) and future (2061--2090) periods. Accumulated Frosts, Dry Days, Growing Season Length, Plant Heat Stress and Start of Field Operations were calculated from the E-Obs (European Observational) and HadRM3 (Hadley Regional Climate Model) PPE (perturbed physics ensemble) data sets. Indices were compared directly and examined for current and future uncertainty. Biases are quantified in terms of ensemble member climate sensitivity and regional aggregation. Maps of spatial change then provide an appropriate metric for end-users both in terms of their requirements and statistical robustness. A future UK is described with fewer frosts, fewer years with a large number of frosts, an earlier start to field operations (e.g., tillage), fewer occurrences of sporadic rainfall, more instances of high temperatures (in both the mean and upper range), and a much longer growing season.

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Departments, Centres and Research Units:

Computing > Embodied AudioVisual Interaction Group (EAVI)


28 November 2014Published

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Date Deposited:

01 Apr 2016 13:12

Last Modified:

29 Apr 2020 16:16

Peer Reviewed:

Yes, this version has been peer-reviewed.



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