Deforestation and world population sustainability: a quantitative analysis

Bologna, Mauro and Aquino, Gerardo. 2020. Deforestation and world population sustainability: a quantitative analysis. Scientific Reports, 10, p. 7631. ISSN 2045-2322 [Article]

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Abstract or Description

In this paper we afford a quantitative analysis of the sustainability of current world population growth in relation to the parallel deforestation process adopting a statistical point of view. We consider a simplified model based on a stochastic growth process driven by a continuous time random walk, which depicts the technological evolution of human kind, in conjunction with a deterministic generalised logistic model for humans-forest interaction and we evaluate the probability of avoiding the self-destruction of our civilisation. Based on the current resource consumption rates and best estimate of technological rate growth our study shows that we have very low probability, less than 10% in most optimistic estimate, to survive without facing a catastrophic collapse.

Item Type:

Article

Identification Number (DOI):

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-63657-6

Related URLs:

Departments, Centres and Research Units:

Computing

Dates:

DateEvent
2 April 2020Accepted
6 May 2020Published

Item ID:

28728

Date Deposited:

09 Jun 2020 10:53

Last Modified:

14 Oct 2020 11:19

Peer Reviewed:

Yes, this version has been peer-reviewed.

URI:

http://research.gold.ac.uk/id/eprint/28728

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